Most governments advise people not to book holidays abroad this summer, given the uncertainties regarding the evolution of the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Most officials estimate this prospect as being “not reasonable”.

While deconfinement is supposed to start in many countries soon, the arrival of sunny days leads some to already think about the preparation of their summer holidays abroad, or worry about whether they will be able to take advantage of their bookings outside the country.

But will it be possible to travel abroad this summer 2020? Still cautious, the officials believe, however, that it is “not reasonable” to consider it.

Can we book a house, a rental, a camping spot or a hotel in July or August abroad? Top officials in Europe fear it is unreasonable to imagine traveling far abroad very quickly
Since the beginning of the month, executives have started to advise against planning a holiday abroad for this summer 2020.

There will be an after-coronavirus. But for now be advised to be very careful when planning your trips because the situation today is still too uncertain.

Very clever who knows how to describe the transport offer tomorrow and who can describe exactly when we are going to start deconfining. Different scenarios are being studied by the transport ministries all over the world, to prepare the resumption of activity at the end of confinement.

Now is not the time to buy a ticket to go to the other side of the planet with all the uncertainties that we can have about what will be the state of the epidemic. The point of vigilance is that today is not the time to buy a ticket to go to the other side of the planet with all the uncertainties that one can have on what will be the state of the epidemic. You should favor holidays in your country for the coming summer: this will also help the tourism sector in your country.

Unlikely resumption of air traffic

Road, rail and air traffic has, due to confinement, been extremely slowed down, journeys still tolerated must meet an imperative reason or a professional reason essential and cannot be postponed.

Many airports were thus closed in March, for an indefinite period, but with the promise of a recovery as soon as possible. No one is sure that air transport will be able to resume in good conditions quickly. officials have reservations about the conditions of entry or re-entry on the national territories, which should be rather demanding vis-à-vis those arriving from abroad, in this context of pandemic.

Current rules for traveling abroad

Remember that the confinement rules in most countries prohibit going on vacation, whether at home or abroad, even if you wish to join your second home or a rental, as well as returning to your main residence if you have started your confinement in his second home.

With a few exceptions, such as the end of a rental lease, the protection of vulnerable persons or animals, or the care of children, everyone must remain confined in one and the same place throughout containment. Do not travel for leisure or during your holidays. It is however possible to go by car to your family living in a European country, only if it is a compelling reason.

This is an unpredictable global pandemic, which determines the time of confinement. The problem is that in this context of a global pandemic with multiple unknowns, planning is complicated, even on the scale of a few weeks or months. If only because containment started at different times depending on the country, creating a gap. Any country therefore also depend on the confinement rules and the entry restrictions on the territory of other countries, which vary from one country to another and will certainly be adapted according to the evolution of the pandemic.

The issue of collective immunity

Another determining factor in the implementation of deconfinement is that of collective immunity, which is the fact that beyond a certain threshold of contamination of the population, a virus stops spreading. This is the issue of containment: limiting interactions while patients are treated and isolated to reduce contamination, this new coronavirus being very contagious, more than the flu.

But many doubts surround the very possibility of collective immunity for the Covid-19. For COVID-19, it is estimated that 60% of the population must have met it so that it no longer circulates, according to expert infectiologists. Those who have not not infected will be protected by those who have been infected. This is the very principle of vaccination.

In the United Kingdom, the chief scientific adviser of the government had indeed based on this estimate. The country had therefore first embarked on a “laissez-faire” strategy regarding the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally turned around due to the increase in serious cases and the saturation of hospitals, resigning himself to confinement.

We do not have hindsight to know how long the immunity will persist. It has happened that in people carrying this virus, at one time, this the latter was no longer detectable, then it reappeared. But in light of what we know today about tests, we think that the virus was still present. It was not a real recurrence but an absence of healing.